Why the energy costs could drop to zero - PV Magazine Germany

Empirical data show that the effect on the solar cell has dropped by 10 percent and not 20 percent.What if the "investment" lives 40 years and not 20 years?A solar panel with a splinter -free glass and quality on the back can theoretically produce energy for a long time, probably over 50 years.In addition, the input factor solar is a renewable and free resource.From 2035 to the «zero-emission company»

Vervierfachung der jährlichen Installation ab 2020

It is only possible to reduce the energy costs to zero and that the total current production becomes price -forming when the solar energy is large.The question is, can solar energy really get that big?

Today solar energy is a little more than two percent of global electricity.She is insignificant.The electricity of wind and sun is expected to increase from 8 percent in 2019 to 30 percent in 2030, of which more than half of the solar energy is eliminated.By 2030 we expect big changes in the annual installation of solar power plants.According to the much-discussed IEA report (Net Zero by 2050), the global community is to install 630 gigawatts annually by 2030.This corresponds to a division of the annual installation from 2020 and a slight change in the speed from 2010 to 2020 if the annual installations have tripled.By 2030, solar energy could make up almost 20 percent of production and 90 percent could come from renewable sources by 2050, according to the IEA.In most countries it is now the cheapest to produce a new kilowatt hour through the installation of solar modules, and it becomes steadily cheaper.At the end of March, the US Ministry of Energy had stated that the price of large solar systems in the United States will decrease from currently 4.6 cents/kilowatt hours to 3 cents in 2025 to 2 cents in 2030.

Die zwei wichtigsten Argumente für Solarenergie als disruptive Gelegenheit

The solar industry has proven two things in the past ten years.It can scale production at falling costs, which means that solar power plants become cheaper every year and the renewable resource solar remains free.

At the same time there are at least two other relevant arguments that appear frequently.(1) The ability of the power grid to transport and save solar power and (2) is there enough space for all solar power plants?

The production profile of solar energy requires intermediate memory (batteries, hydrogen) and high investments in the infrastructure.These huge infrastructure programs are starting in the USA and Europe these days, while investing in the battery production of private capital at the same time multiplies.

The second argument, which is often led to a large scaling of solar power plants, is the space required.The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) calculated that the entire electricity production of America by covering the Mojave desert (35.000 square kilometers) can be replaced.With the increased efficiency of solar modules and more roofs that are filled with solar modules, the proportion of a small part of Nevada, Texas or Utah (16.000 square miles) reduced.Regardless of this, space is also a question of will, creativity and new business models.Maybe we have to use the sea to produce solar power?Or panels along the power lines?Or the streets?

We cannot find the most important argument for solar energy in financial accounting, but in "energy bill".In an hour the sun meets with more energy when we can consume in a year.If we manage to capture fragments of this energy, there is no energy crisis.Energy repayment, Energy Payback Time (EPBT), calculates how long an energy system takes to produce more energy than was used up for the creation of the system.In solar energy, this time varies between six and 36 months, depending on the number of sunshine and the temperature.With a lifespan of 40 years, EPBT of 36 months, there are 37 years of "free" energy for the planet and energy costs that drop to zero.

Around 2030 the solar energy will have such a large proportion in the electricity mix that it will be relevant for electricity price formation.Around 140 gigawatts of solar energy will be built this year.In the course of 2040, all new facilities built this decade will be completed and paid off.The outline of a legion of solar power plants around the world can be seen there.Maybe Spain is an indication of what comes?A combination of new and old solar power plants will push the electricity price down by 2025.

Then the question is: "Who can keep up with a fully copied solar system with a free input factor?".At DNB Asset Management, we call this a disruptive chance.

- The author Audun Wickstrand Iversen is a portfolio manager who covers several sectors and is looking for companies with a disruptive approach for existing business models.He leads the DNB funds disruptive opportunities and future waves.Before he came back to DNB in 2019, he founded several companies and was a member of the board, chairman and CEO in non -listed and listed companies on the Osloer Börse.In his previous career at DNB on, from 2001 to 2007 he was portfolio manager in several highly rated investment funds.-

The blog posts and comments on www.PV magazine.de do not necessarily give the opinion and attitude of the editor and the PV Magazine Group again.Our website is an open platform for the exchange of industry and politics. Wenn Sie auch in eigenen Beiträgen Kommentare einreichen wollen, schreiben Sie bitte an redaktion@PV magazine.com.

This content is protected by copyright and must not be copied. Wenn Sie mit uns kooperieren und Inhalte von uns teilweise nutzen wollen, nehmen Sie bitte Kontakt auf: redaktion@PV magazine.com.